The authorities have been declaring plans to create new jobs for years, but the situation is only changing in the opposite direction.
In Tajikistan, it is planned to create 221,000 jobs in 2023, which is 7.7% more than in 2022. This is required by the new State Program for the Promotion of Employment of the Population, designed for 2023-2027.
According to the forecast of socio-economic indicators of the regions of Tajikistan, it is envisaged that during 2023-2027, more than 1.2 million new jobs will be created in the sectors of the economy of the country as a whole, including 748 thousand new jobs in the real sector of the economy ( 59.6%) and in the service sector – more than 506 thousand places (40.4%).
Of the total number of jobs created, 457 thousand (36.4%) are permanent jobs, the rest are temporary and seasonal.
According to the estimate, the total amount of funding for the Program for 2023-2027 will be about 234 million somoni.
What does the program say?
As the population grows, so does the labor force. Forecasts show that by 2027 they will increase by 10% compared to 2022 and reach 6.4 million. Accordingly, with the growth of labor resources, the labor force will also increase by 8.7%, and in 2027 it will reach more than 2.8 million people.
Labor resources – the entire population capable of working (from 16 to 63 years).
Labor force – workers directly engaged in labor
According to statistics, the labor force (economically active population) in 2022 was about 2.6 million people.
It is assumed that during 2023-2027, 1.4 million people from among graduates of universities and secondary educational institutions, as well as discharged military personnel from the ranks of the Armed Forces, laid-off workers from enterprises and released from correctional institutions will enter the labor market.
Almost half of them – 710 thousand – will be involved in the work with the assistance of the labor and employment authorities.
More than 355 thousand people will be employed at enterprises and organizations. 294 thousand people will be employed at the expense of vacant jobs, 44 thousand people will be employed at the expense of quota jobs, and another 17 thousand – through the allocation of preferential loans.
Along with this, 108,000 unemployed citizens will be covered by vocational training, 38,000 will be involved in paid public works, 138,000 will provide vocational guidance services, and 69,000 unemployed will receive unemployment benefits.
The state hopes that the majority of jobs will be created by entrepreneurs and the population itself.
The State Program for the Promotion of Employment of the Population speaks of five key areas of state policy in the field of employment and social protection, these are the expansion of areas of productive employment; knowledge and skills, technology and productive employment opportunities; business development and creation of productive jobs; labor market institutions and programs; social partnership.
What hinders job creation?
The Tajik authorities have been declaring plans to create new jobs for many years now, but the situation shows that more and more people cannot find a decent job within the country and go to work in Russia and other countries. Jobs with a salary of up to 2,000 somoni have not met the needs of families for a long time.
Migration expert Shukhrat Latipov believes that the government should help, not create jobs.
And this requires reforms in many areas of the economy.
“If at least 50% of the jobs created are permanent, then we can say that the programs are producing good results,” he notes.
He is sure that it is very difficult to create more than 200,000 new jobs a year in the current conditions of Tajikistan.
“According to official statistics and local development reports, the program seems to be on track. But, as we see, it is being implemented partially or remains on paper,” the expert says.
According to him, to analyze the economic situation, it is necessary to involve independent internal and external experts so that the analysis is transparent, fair and understandable, and official statistics provided by local authorities are reliably verified.
It is necessary to work on the issue of existing monopolies in the economy, because the free participation of all companies in the country’s economy must be ensured.
Another expert in the field of migration, Anvar Babaev, notes that the vast majority of Tajik migrants will continue their labor activity in Russia, and in some cases retrain in other sectors of the economy where there is a demand for labor.
And there is an explanation for this: if the economic situation worsens in Russia, say, twice, then in Tajikistan it will worsen even more and the financial situation of families will become critical. This is well understood by labor migrants in our country.
About 800,000 (according to other sources, more than a million) citizens of Tajikistan work in Russia every year, and this figure is likely to remain in the coming years.
At the same time, a strange incident is observed in Tajikistan – we actually have work, but there are no suitable specialists. And that’s another big problem.
Experts believe that the majority of Tajik migrants will continue their labor activity in Russia
Photo from stroyportal
At the end of last year, at a job fair in Dushanbe, organized by the Ministry of Labor, Rogun HPP OJSC presented 2,677 new jobs to job seekers. In addition, the recruitment was announced by such enterprises as: Tajikhydroelectromontazh OJSC, Saddi Oriyono Tunnel CJSC, Experimental Mechanical Plant JSC with a salary of 2 to 4 thousand somoni.
There are often announcements in which employers are looking for programmers, cooks, financiers, builders and other professionals with a decent salary.
But for some reason, no one is in a hurry to find a job there: Rogun, for example, has not found workers. According to experts, the reason is that the majority of Tajik youth do not have the appropriate qualifications.
In Tajikistan, the discrepancy between the level of qualifications of personnel and the requirements of the modern market is a widespread problem.
Despite the fact that in the republic, along with hundreds of secondary specialized educational institutions, the vocational training system of the Ministry of Labor operates: 5 centers, 41 branches, 29 representative offices, including the Adult Education Center with 34 branches and 24 representative Dushanbe”, State Unitary Enterprise “Training Center of the city of Khujand”, which teach 103 professions, most of the graduates do not receive sufficient qualifications even in simple working specialties, not to mention high-tech jobs.