Tajikistan Sees Sharp Rise in Consumer Price Index Inflation in March

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The consumer price index (CPI) inflation in Tajikistan stood at 0.9 percent in March compared with 0.5 percent in January and 0.4 percent in February.

The National Bank of Tajikistan says annual inflation for Tajikistan for the 12 months ended March stood at 3.6 percent.  

Tajikistan’s financial regulator predicts this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan at 6.0 percent.

The World Bank’s report entitled “Weak Growth, High Inflation, and Cost-of-Living Crisis: Europe and Central Asia Economic Update” says the average CPI inflation declined to 6.6 percent in 2022 from 9.0 percent a year earlier.

The report notes that this year, inflation is expected to decrease gradually and remain within the NBT’s 4.0–8.0 percent target range, supported by tight monetary policy.

The external position is reportedly expected to normalize after a peak in 2022.  Moreover, the World Bank economists believe that reduced global demand is expected to weaken Tajikistan’s export of precious metals and minerals.

According to the report, this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan is expected to stand at 5.6 percent, and over the next two years, it will stand at 6.5 percent. 

The “Macroeconomic Review: April 2023”, released by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) on April 10, predicts this year’s year-end inflation in Tajikistan to stand at 6.0 percent.

Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) notes that inflation, which slowed to 4.2% in 2022, is projected to accelerate to 7% in 2023, reflecting possible currency depreciation in tandem with a weakening Russian ruble, further increases in consumer lending, salary hikes for some civil servants, and a rise in pensions.   Inflation is projected to slow to 6.5% in 2024 as global food prices moderate, the ADB says. 

Source : ASIA-Plus